India's quick-commerce industry is expanding quickly but faces challenges in achieving profitable growth outside metropolitan areas, with rural regions accounting for only 20 percent of gross merchandise value (GMV) due to lower demand levels, digital readiness, and local purchasing habits, according to a report.

Market research company Redseer reports that the quick-commerce sector in India experienced a staggering growth of roughly 150 percent year-on-year in the first five months of 2025, driven by the swift establishment of "dark stores," aggressive category expansion, and intense competition.

However, even with this remarkable growth and the presence of quick-commerce services in more than 100 cities, non-metro areas (excluding the eight major cities) contribute just over 20 percent of the sector's GMV.

This figure is significantly lower than their 60-70 percent share of the overall retail market in the top 100 cities of India, which indicates a considerable untapped opportunity but also raises concerns about the industry's ability to profitably expand in these regions.

Daily order volumes per dark store decline significantly beyond the top 10-15 cities, dipping below 1,000, and further dropping to under 700 in the subsequent 20 cities.

 

Moreover, the growth trajectory in a typical non-metro city (beyond the top 15) indicates that these areas tend to plateau before reaching the 1,000 orders per day threshold, reflecting weak demand, as noted by Redseer.

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Several factors contribute to this trend: many customers in smaller towns have lower digital proficiency and trust in online services, which limits their ordering frequency and comfort with online transactions.

In these regions, population density is lower, resulting in fewer potential customers within each delivery zone.

Local preferences are very specific, and the product offerings from quick-commerce platforms often do not align with these tastes, diminishing their attractiveness to local shoppers.

Additionally, well-established local retail networks continue to thrive. Residents typically have long-term relationships with neighborhood shop owners, who also provide informal home delivery services on credit.

Achieving profitability in smaller towns remains a significant challenge. The lack of maturity in demand leads to lower average order values, while the small size of the market necessitates a larger delivery radius and higher delivery costs.

Consequently, the breakeven point for dark store throughput in smaller cities is 1.5-2x higher compared to metropolitan areas, making it quite difficult, according to Redseer.

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Despite these ongoing challenges, there are nonetheless areas of promise. Student-centric cities such as Prayagraj and Varanasi, along with affluent areas like Chandigarh, are demonstrating strong demand for quick commerce.

According to the global consulting firm Kearney, the quick commerce grocery market is projected to grow threefold between 2024 and 2027, reaching an estimated Rs 1.5 lakh crore to 1.7 lakh crore.