India is considering allocating around 4 trillion rupees (approximately $48 billion) for food and fertilizer subsidies in the upcoming fiscal year, signaling fiscal prudence in anticipation of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, according to government sources. This allocation reflects the government's commitment to supporting agriculture and ensuring food security. In the current fiscal year ending on March 31, India's total budget spending is 45 trillion rupees, with subsidies on food and fertilizer constituting a significant portion. The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution has projected a 10% increase in food subsidies for the next fiscal year.

Moreover, sources suggest that the fertilizer subsidy for the next fiscal year is expected to be around 1.75 trillion rupees ($21.10 billion), slightly less than the current estimate for the fiscal year 2022–2023. The Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, is scheduled to present the interim budget for 2024-25 on February 1. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a third term in the upcoming elections, maintaining subsidies at their current level would be unusual for a government facing a national election shortly.

Effectively managing food and fertilizer subsidies is critical for controlling India's fiscal deficit, targeted at 5.9% of the gross domestic product this year, with plans to reduce it further in the fiscal year 2024-25. Despite the fiscal challenges, the government's commitment to extending the free food welfare program is likely to increase the cost of food subsidies in the coming year. India's extensive food welfare program involves purchasing rice and wheat from domestic farmers at state-set minimum prices and distributing these staples for free to 800 million Indians, making it the world's largest such initiative